Bitcoin Trend Reversal: Why BTC May Continue Down After Trendline Break
Bitcoin has finally broken a major long-term trendline on the daily chart, and this is the first clear sign that the bullish trend may be weakening. Many traders were waiting for this trendline retest, and now the market is showing signs of a deeper correction. At the same time, the weekly Fibonacci levels also confirm that the upside momentum is slowing down.
In this article, we explain the technical breakdown, Fibonacci confirmation, and the biggest reasons why large institutions might be selling Bitcoin at this stage.
1. Trendline Break on Daily Chart – First Warning of Trend Reversal
For almost two years, Bitcoin followed a clean upward trendline. This trendline acted as strong support many times, pushing the price higher after every correction.
But now, BTC has broken below this trendline, showing weakness in the long-term bullish structure. This type of break normally tells traders that the trend is changing.
What traders usually do after a trendline break
- First, wait for the retest of the broken trendline.
- If Bitcoin retests the line and fails to move above it, traders treat the retest as confirmation.
- Once the retest fails, sell setups become active and short positions or profit-taking often increase.
This is exactly what many technical traders watch for. A failed retest can open the door to bigger downside targets.
2. Fibonacci Levels Confirm the Trend Shift
The weekly chart shows a full Fibonacci retracement from the pandemic low to the all-time high zone. Bitcoin has now rejected the 0.236 level near $100,000, which is an important zone of support/resistance.
Why this matters
- A strong trend normally stays above the 0.236 retracement.
- Once price breaks below it and closes weak, it often moves toward the next Fibonacci levels.
Next important Fibonacci levels
- 0.382 – $83,850
- 0.5 – $70,770
- 0.618 – $57,687
A move toward 0.382 or 0.5 is normal in a deeper correction. This matches the trendline break, giving more confirmation that momentum is shifting downward.
3. Institutional Selling: Why Big Players May Be Reducing BTC
In the last few months, several large institutions and funds have been reported selling or reducing their Bitcoin exposure. Examples of major institutions in the Bitcoin market include:
- BlackRock
- Fidelity
- Ark Invest
- Grayscale
- Large crypto hedge funds
- Some early-stage Bitcoin ETFs
While these names continuously rebalance their portfolios, recent market activity suggests that institutional selling pressure has increased.
Why would institutions sell?
Institutions follow risk-management rules. When major technical levels break (like the trendline shown above), they often start reducing exposure to protect profits.
4. Main Reasons Behind BTC Selling Pressure
1. Fed rate uncertainty
The U.S. Federal Reserve has not given a clear timeline for rate cuts. Higher interest rates make risk assets weaker, including Bitcoin. When rates remain high:
- Investors prefer safer assets
- Liquidity becomes low
- Crypto markets cool down
This creates selling pressure.
2. Global trade tensions & tariff risks
Global markets are again worried about new tariffs between major economies. Whenever trade tensions rise:
- Investors move to safer assets
- Bitcoin and stocks face corrections
This fear is clearly visible across all risk markets.
3. Profit booking after a big rally
Bitcoin achieved massive gains in the last cycle. Large institutions, ETFs, and early investors often book profits when:
- Price hits major resistance
- Trendline breaks
- Momentum slows
This profit-booking phase can bring long and healthy corrections.
4. Regulatory uncertainty
Even though Bitcoin ETFs are running successfully, the global regulatory environment is still unclear. Rules around crypto taxation, exchange laws, and ETF exposure limits keep changing, and this uncertainty pushes some funds to reduce positions.
5. Weak market sentiment
Market sentiment is not as strong as before. Liquidations, slow ETF inflows, and fear of economic slowdown are making traders cautious. When sentiment weakens, investors become more defensive.
5. What to Expect Next for Bitcoin?
- The trendline break is the first warning.
- If BTC retests the trendline and fails, another sell-off is possible.
- Fibonacci levels show $83k → $70k → $57k as the next support zones.
This does not mean Bitcoin is in long-term danger, but in the short-term, the market is showing signs of a deeper correction.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s break of the long-term trendline and rejection from the weekly Fibonacci zone both point toward a short-term trend reversal. Combined with institutional selling and macro uncertainties like Fed rate decisions and global tariffs, BTC may remain under pressure.
Corrections are normal in every cycle. Smart traders wait for retests, confirmations, and strong levels before making decisions.
This article is for educational and informational purposes only. It is not financial advice and should not be used to make investment or trading decisions. Cryptocurrency markets are highly volatile, and you should always do your own research or consult a licensed financial advisor before investing. The author and website are not responsible for any financial losses or risks taken based on this content.
